Donald Trump

We Need a lot More than Some Wall to Bring Back those Jobs

Trump supporters rejoice today. After a complicated campaign, Trump finally scores the nomination. The campaign has been a long and strange trip. Actually, it wasn’t very long and it was exceptionally strange.

It is questionable if Trump, the life long democrat, would have been where he is today had he not uttered two bold proclamations. First, as president he will get Mexico to pay for a wall on the southern U.S. border. And second, he wants to ban Muslim immigrants.

Unfortunately, today I will just be focusing on that first gem.

worker“I love the Mexican people … I respect Mexico … but the problem we have is that their leaders are much sharper, smarter and more cunning than our leaders, and they’re killing us at the border. They’re taking our jobs. They’re taking our manufacturing jobs. They’re taking our money. They’re killing us….I wonder if the Mexican government sent them over here. I think so. Don’t worry, we’ll take out country back.”

He went on to say,

that he would be able to get hostages returned “in an hour” and would tax Mexico each time someone crossed the border illegally. He said he could convince the head of Ford Motor Co. to move a plant back to the United States from Mexico overnight, with a couple of phone calls.
“It’s so simple.”

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It is no coincidence that the majority of Trump supporters that rode him to his victory last night, have been middle America working class. The same people who have lost jobs to illegals. If you ask people at Trump rallies why they are supporting him, predominantly they will mutter something about illegals.

Paul Weber of Iowa said at an October Trump rally that he was tired of “new Americans” flooding the country.

Another at a Trump rally, who was with his wife, who was from the Philippines said, “It is not fair to her to let the illegals stay here. She does everything right. She works, she pays taxes, she votes.”

My article will certainly not be against Trump, as much as it will be against his supporters who really believe there is a chance in hell that even if he somehow manages to persuade Mexico to build this tremendous structure between our countries, that it would do anything to bring back one single job.

agri

Building a wall is just one wheel on a roller skate. Essentially, Trump supporter’s are excited about the wall cause they think it’ll magically prevent illegals from taking American jobs. If Trump would have said, ‘I’ll get Mexico to pay for a wall, so it is easier for illegals to get into the country.’ He certainly wouldn’t be where he is today. A wall will do nothing to bring jobs back to our country.

A man who owns a landscaping business with around 100 employees, and about half of them are illegals, told a report with Bloombergview why he had to hire illegals. One of his biggest competitors began using undocumented Mexicans. Suddenly his competitor has an edge. Plus, according to him, lots of the Americans he hired were not reliable. They would often quit unexpectedly. “The work is beneath many Americans.” Besides the determination and sterling work ethic of an illegal, they are paid significantly less than a citizen.

farm

Another reason why this Magic Wall will be utterly ineffective is the inevitable reduction of manufacturing jobs. The U.S. industrial decline has been going on for a while, and there is no reversing it with some Romper Room building block wall.

Economists classify all jobs in three categories – agricultural, industry and services. Through the 19th century, America was an agricultural economy. Then, from the late 19th century to the 20th century America became an industrial economy. Up until the mid seventies, America was the industrial powerhouse of the world – think Laverne and Shirley on the assembly line.

In 1970, more than one quarter of America worked in manufacturing jobs. By 2010, that number had sunk to one in ten. Trump could punch his fist in the air and blame China for this malady. However, U.S. job slide in the manufacturing industry began well before China emerged as a manufacturing giant.

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Here is the real killer to the Magic Wall : manufacturing jobs are even declining in China. Manufacturing jobs, those jobs that the Magic Wall is aimed to protect, are actually declining across the world. The U.K. and Australia have seen their manufacturing jobs plummet two thirds since 1970, Germany’s manufacturing portion of the job market has halved, and South Korea has fallen to 17% from 28% in 1991.

Sadly, if you fell for that snake oil Trump is peddling, there is a good chance you still don’t understand my point.

Technology is the way of the future.

graph

The leading countries of the world today have gained their wealth through industrialization. The economic history of most of these leading countries follow a clear path from a colony to a city. You work hard on the farm and then you start working in the factory, and then you snag a job in the service field. As wages increase in the services sector, fewer people are employed in the agricultural trade.

Instead of desperately clawing at jobs that have vanished, like some countries around the world, it would be a better idea to become smarter in technology.

Here is an interesting graph that shows how other countries are preparing for the technological way of the future.

graph2

According to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s ebusiness readiness rankings from 2010, developing economies are more prepared for the digital era. The ebusiness readiness of Peru, Colombia, China, Vietnam, Nigeria, Pakistan, Romania and Indonesia grew at a compound annual growth rate of at least two percent between 2005 and 2010, leaving more developed countries in the dust.

After you read the article, and someone says to you

They are making a fortune, Mexico is making a fortune off the United States, it’s becoming the new China in terms of trade — they’re killing us at the border.

I hope you recognize the absurdity of the quote.

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